미 강경파, 북한 정권교체 부시에게 촉구 (IPS, 2004. 11. 22)
북미갈등과 핵위기/자료-각국입장 :
2004/11/24 17:01
지난 해 이라크 침공을 이끌었던 미국의 강경파들은 이제 한국과 중국의 강력한 반대에도 불구하고 부시 대통령이 북한에 대해 보다 강경한 정책을 채택하도록 압박하고 있다.
지난 주 칠레에서 있었던 APEC 정상회담에서 북한문제는 동북아 국가 정상들과 부시 대통령간의 양자회담에서 최대 현안으로 다뤄졌었다.
보도에 따르면 부시 대통령은 북한에 대한 인내심이나 6자회담을 진행하기 위한 노력들이 빠르게 소진되고 있으며, 북한이 핵무기 프로그램을 해체하도록 하기 위해 미국은 조만간 합의 과정이 없이 북한에 대해 강경조치들을 취할 것임을 분명히 하려고 했다.
부시 대통령은 한국, 러시아, 일본, 중국 정부가 이에 대해 동의했다고 주장하고 있지만 후진타오 국가주석이나 노무현 대통령은 미국의 대북 강경책에 대한 강력한 반대 입장을 철회하지 않았다.
실제로 정상회담 직전에 노무현 대통령은 LA에서 한 연설을 통해 대북 강경책이 심각한 반발을 불러올 수 있으며 북핵문제를 다루기 위해서는 대화 이외에 다른 방도가 없다고 말한 바 있다. 노무현 대통령은 북한에 대한 경제제재에 대해서도 비판을 하였다.
미국의 매파의 움직임은 지난 월요일 새로운 미국의 세기 프로젝트 (Project for New American Century, PNAC)를 맡고 있으며 영향력있는 신보수주의자인 윌리엄 크리스톨(William Kristol)이 ‘북한의 정권교체 쪽으로’라는 제목의 성명을 팩스로 기자들과 여론주도층에 보내면서 분명해졌다.
PNAC는 부통령 딕 체니와, 럼스펠트 국방부 장관, 그리고 폴 월포위츠 국방 부장관 그리고 부시의 국가안보담당 관료들 중 딕 체니의 강력한 측근 관료들을 자랑하고 있는 프로젝트이다.
이와 관련하여 한 전문가는 “매파들이 대북정책 방향을 설정할 시점으로서 부시 행정부 2기로의 전환과 6자회담이 재개되기 이전으로 보고 있다는 것이 분명하다”고 IPS에 말하고 있다.
크리스톨의 성명은 지난주 워싱턴의 보수 싱크탱크인 아메리칸기업연구소(AEI)의 니컬러스 에버슈타트 선임연구원이 '위클리 스탠더드'라는 주간지에 기고한 글과 최근 뉴욕타임스의 기사를 언급했다. 크리스톨은 이 주간지의 편집장이다.
에버슈타트는 '독재정권을 갈아치우자'는 제목의 글에서 미 행정부가 북한의 김정일 국방위원장을 축출하기 위한 6개항의 전략을 이행해야 한다고 촉구했다.
그는 이 6개항은 ▲ 북핵문제에 적절히 대처하지 못한 국무부 관리들을 교체하고 ▲ 대북협상이 실패했을 경우 실패를 선언해야 하고 ▲ 북핵문제와 관련한 중국의 책임의식을 고취하고 ▲ 노무현 대통령을 포함하여 한국정부내 대북 유화파에 대처하고 ▲ 북핵문제의 비외교적 해결 수단을 준비하고 ▲ 북한정권 붕괴후를 가정한 한반도 정책을 수립할 것 등이다.
크리스톨이 언급한 뉴욕타임스 기사는 지난 21일 게재된 것으로 일본내 우익 및 언론 관계자들이 김정일의 권력이 약화되고 있다고 주장했다고 전했다. 이 기사는 특히 집권 자민당이 "정권교체"가 분명한 가능성중 하나이며 "그때에 우리가 무엇을 해야 하는지에 대한 시뮬레이션을 시작할 필요가 있다"는 성명을 발표한 것에 주목했다.
크리스톨은 "최근의 보도들은 북한의 스탈린식 권력 구조에 금이 가고 있고 중대한 반체제 행동이 나타나고 있다는 것을 시사한다"면서 "이것은 부시 대통령의 2기 임기중 우선 정책들중 하나는 이 지독한 정권을 다루는 것이 돼야 한다는 것을 우리에게 상기시켜 준다"고 주장했다.
IPS통신은 에버스타트의 주장은 공공연히 국무부 부장관이 되기 위해 노력하는 존 볼튼 국무차관의 주장을 대부분 반영하는 것이라면서 볼튼은 AEI의 부소장이었다고 말했다.
일본의 극우인사로 존 볼튼과의 우애관계에 있다고 말하고 있는 신타로 이시하라 동경도지사는 존 볼튼이 북한에 대한 경제제재를 하기를 원하고 있으며 미 행정부의 견해도 일년 이내에 김정일을 축줄하는 것이라고 후지 TV에 말한 바 있다.
원문 (출처: IPS)
Hawks Push Regime Change in North Korea
Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON, Nov 22 (IPS) - The coalition of foreign-policy hawks that promoted the 2003 invasion of Iraq is pressing President George W Bush to adopt a more coercive policy toward North Korea, despite strong opposition from China and South Korea.
By most accounts, North Korea ranked high in bilateral talks between Bush and Northeast Asian leaders, including Chinese President Hu Jintao, at the summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Santiago, Chile this past weekend, although the final communiqué did not address the issue.
Bush reportedly tried to make clear that his patience toward Pyongyang and its alleged efforts to stall the ongoing ''Six-Party Talks'' was fast running out and that Washington will soon push for stronger measures against North Korea in the absence of progress toward an agreement under which Pyongyang will dismantle its alleged nuclear-arms programme.
Bush claimed Sunday that his interlocutors, who included the leaders of the four other parties -- Russia, China, Japan and South Korea -- agreed with him, but Hu and South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun have not backed down publicly from their strong opposition to a harder line toward Pyongyang.
Indeed, just before the weekend summit, Roh told an audience in Los Angeles that a hard-line policy over North Korea's nuclear weapons would have ''grave repercussions'', adding, ”There is no alternative left in dealing with this issue except dialogue''.
The South Korean leader also denounced the idea of an economic embargo against Pyongyang.
That the hawks back in Washington are indeed mobilising became clear Monday when William Kristol, an influential neo-conservative who also chairs the Project for the New American Century (PNAC), faxed a statement entitled 'Toward Regime Change in North Korea' to reporters and various ''opinion leaders'' in the capital.
PNAC, which boasts Vice President Dick Cheney, Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld, Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Cheney's powerful chief of staff, I Lewis Libby -- among a dozen other senior Bush national-security officials -- as signers of its 1997 charter, issues statements relatively infrequently.
''It's clear that they see the transition (between the Bush administration's two terms) and before any new round of the Six-Party Talks -- as the time to try to set policy direction'', one veteran analyst told IPS on Monday.
Kristol's statement referred in particular to two recent articles, including one published last week by Nicholas Eberstadt, a Korea specialist at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), which appeared in the neo-conservative 'The Weekly Standard', which is edited by Kristol.
The article, 'Tear Down This Tyranny', called for the implementation of a six-point strategy aimed at ousting North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Il, in part by ''working around the pro-appeasement crowd in the South Korean government'', which apparently includes Roh himself.
The second article, published Sunday in the 'New York Times', detailed a number of recent indications cited by right-wing officials and the press in Japan -- including high-level defections and the reported circulation of anti-government pamphlets -- that Kim's hold on power may be slipping.
The article noted in particular a recent statement by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Shinzo Abe, that ''regime change'' was a distinct possibility and that ''we need to start simulations of what we should do at that time''.
''Recent reports suggest the presence of emerging cracks in the Stalinist power structure of North Korea, and even the emergence of serious dissident activity there'', wrote Kristol. ''This should remind us that one of President Bush's top priorities in his second term will have to be dealing with this wretch(ed) regime'', he went on, citing Eberstadt's strategy as ''useful guidance for an improved North Korean policy''.
Eberstadt's article, which criticised Korea policy in Bush's first term for being both ''reactive'' and ''paralysed by infighting'', proceeds from the explicit assumption that efforts to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear programme -- which U.S. intelligence believes may already include as many as eight nuclear weapons -- are almost certainly futile.
''We are exceedingly unlikely to talk -- or to bribe -- the current North Korean government out of its nuclear quest'', according to Eberstadt in an implicit rejection of the basic goal of the Six-Party Talks.
Moreover, he wrote, the nuclear crisis and the North Korean government are essentially one and the same: ''Unless and until we have a better class of dictator running North Korea, we will be faced with an ongoing and indeed growing North Korean crisis''.
To achieve the desired ''regime change'', Eberstadt called first for a purge of State Department officials who argued for engaging Pyongyang during Bush's first term.
Washington, according to Eberstadt, should also increase ''China's 'ownership' of the North Korean problem'' by making clear to Beijing that it ''will bear high costs if the current denuclearisation diplomacy failed''.
At the same time, U.S. officials must recognise that South Korea has, under Kim and the ''implacably anti-American and reflexively pro-appeasement'' core of his government, become a ''runaway ally'' -- ''a country bordering a state committed to its destruction, and yet governed increasingly in accordance with graduate-school 'peace studies' desiderata.''
''Instead of appeasing South Korea's appeasers (as our policy to date has attempted to do, albeit clumsily)'', according to Eberstadt, ''America should be speaking over their heads directly to the Korean people, building and nurturing the coalitions in South Korean domestic politics that will ultimately bring a prodigal ally back into the fold'', he argued.
Washington should also ready ''the non-diplomatic instruments for North Korean threat reduction'', Eberstadt wrote, arguing that preparing for the deliberate use of such options -- presumably an economic embargo or even military strikes -- ''will actually increase the probability of a diplomatic success''.
Finally, echoing the LDP's Abe, Eberstadt called for planning for a ''post-Communist Korean peninsula'' with other interested parties, ''to maximise the opportunities and minimise the risks in that delicate and potentially dangerous process''.
Eberstadt's strategy, according to a number of analysts, largely echoes the views of Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton, a former AEI vice president who is openly campaigning to become deputy secretary of state under Condoleezza Rice.
Bolton, perhaps the administration's most extreme hard-liner, has strong support in Cheney's office and other right-wing strongholds, including 'The Weekly Standard' and on the editorial page of the 'Wall Street Journal'.
On Saturday, right-wing Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara, who claims to be on friendly terms with Bolton, told Fuji Television that Bolton wants to impose economic sanctions against North Korea, which, in the U.S. official's view, would lead to Kim's ouster ''within one year''. (END/2004)
지난 주 칠레에서 있었던 APEC 정상회담에서 북한문제는 동북아 국가 정상들과 부시 대통령간의 양자회담에서 최대 현안으로 다뤄졌었다.
보도에 따르면 부시 대통령은 북한에 대한 인내심이나 6자회담을 진행하기 위한 노력들이 빠르게 소진되고 있으며, 북한이 핵무기 프로그램을 해체하도록 하기 위해 미국은 조만간 합의 과정이 없이 북한에 대해 강경조치들을 취할 것임을 분명히 하려고 했다.
부시 대통령은 한국, 러시아, 일본, 중국 정부가 이에 대해 동의했다고 주장하고 있지만 후진타오 국가주석이나 노무현 대통령은 미국의 대북 강경책에 대한 강력한 반대 입장을 철회하지 않았다.
실제로 정상회담 직전에 노무현 대통령은 LA에서 한 연설을 통해 대북 강경책이 심각한 반발을 불러올 수 있으며 북핵문제를 다루기 위해서는 대화 이외에 다른 방도가 없다고 말한 바 있다. 노무현 대통령은 북한에 대한 경제제재에 대해서도 비판을 하였다.
미국의 매파의 움직임은 지난 월요일 새로운 미국의 세기 프로젝트 (Project for New American Century, PNAC)를 맡고 있으며 영향력있는 신보수주의자인 윌리엄 크리스톨(William Kristol)이 ‘북한의 정권교체 쪽으로’라는 제목의 성명을 팩스로 기자들과 여론주도층에 보내면서 분명해졌다.
PNAC는 부통령 딕 체니와, 럼스펠트 국방부 장관, 그리고 폴 월포위츠 국방 부장관 그리고 부시의 국가안보담당 관료들 중 딕 체니의 강력한 측근 관료들을 자랑하고 있는 프로젝트이다.
이와 관련하여 한 전문가는 “매파들이 대북정책 방향을 설정할 시점으로서 부시 행정부 2기로의 전환과 6자회담이 재개되기 이전으로 보고 있다는 것이 분명하다”고 IPS에 말하고 있다.
크리스톨의 성명은 지난주 워싱턴의 보수 싱크탱크인 아메리칸기업연구소(AEI)의 니컬러스 에버슈타트 선임연구원이 '위클리 스탠더드'라는 주간지에 기고한 글과 최근 뉴욕타임스의 기사를 언급했다. 크리스톨은 이 주간지의 편집장이다.
에버슈타트는 '독재정권을 갈아치우자'는 제목의 글에서 미 행정부가 북한의 김정일 국방위원장을 축출하기 위한 6개항의 전략을 이행해야 한다고 촉구했다.
그는 이 6개항은 ▲ 북핵문제에 적절히 대처하지 못한 국무부 관리들을 교체하고 ▲ 대북협상이 실패했을 경우 실패를 선언해야 하고 ▲ 북핵문제와 관련한 중국의 책임의식을 고취하고 ▲ 노무현 대통령을 포함하여 한국정부내 대북 유화파에 대처하고 ▲ 북핵문제의 비외교적 해결 수단을 준비하고 ▲ 북한정권 붕괴후를 가정한 한반도 정책을 수립할 것 등이다.
크리스톨이 언급한 뉴욕타임스 기사는 지난 21일 게재된 것으로 일본내 우익 및 언론 관계자들이 김정일의 권력이 약화되고 있다고 주장했다고 전했다. 이 기사는 특히 집권 자민당이 "정권교체"가 분명한 가능성중 하나이며 "그때에 우리가 무엇을 해야 하는지에 대한 시뮬레이션을 시작할 필요가 있다"는 성명을 발표한 것에 주목했다.
크리스톨은 "최근의 보도들은 북한의 스탈린식 권력 구조에 금이 가고 있고 중대한 반체제 행동이 나타나고 있다는 것을 시사한다"면서 "이것은 부시 대통령의 2기 임기중 우선 정책들중 하나는 이 지독한 정권을 다루는 것이 돼야 한다는 것을 우리에게 상기시켜 준다"고 주장했다.
IPS통신은 에버스타트의 주장은 공공연히 국무부 부장관이 되기 위해 노력하는 존 볼튼 국무차관의 주장을 대부분 반영하는 것이라면서 볼튼은 AEI의 부소장이었다고 말했다.
일본의 극우인사로 존 볼튼과의 우애관계에 있다고 말하고 있는 신타로 이시하라 동경도지사는 존 볼튼이 북한에 대한 경제제재를 하기를 원하고 있으며 미 행정부의 견해도 일년 이내에 김정일을 축줄하는 것이라고 후지 TV에 말한 바 있다.
원문 (출처: IPS)
Hawks Push Regime Change in North Korea
Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON, Nov 22 (IPS) - The coalition of foreign-policy hawks that promoted the 2003 invasion of Iraq is pressing President George W Bush to adopt a more coercive policy toward North Korea, despite strong opposition from China and South Korea.
By most accounts, North Korea ranked high in bilateral talks between Bush and Northeast Asian leaders, including Chinese President Hu Jintao, at the summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Santiago, Chile this past weekend, although the final communiqué did not address the issue.
Bush reportedly tried to make clear that his patience toward Pyongyang and its alleged efforts to stall the ongoing ''Six-Party Talks'' was fast running out and that Washington will soon push for stronger measures against North Korea in the absence of progress toward an agreement under which Pyongyang will dismantle its alleged nuclear-arms programme.
Bush claimed Sunday that his interlocutors, who included the leaders of the four other parties -- Russia, China, Japan and South Korea -- agreed with him, but Hu and South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun have not backed down publicly from their strong opposition to a harder line toward Pyongyang.
Indeed, just before the weekend summit, Roh told an audience in Los Angeles that a hard-line policy over North Korea's nuclear weapons would have ''grave repercussions'', adding, ”There is no alternative left in dealing with this issue except dialogue''.
The South Korean leader also denounced the idea of an economic embargo against Pyongyang.
That the hawks back in Washington are indeed mobilising became clear Monday when William Kristol, an influential neo-conservative who also chairs the Project for the New American Century (PNAC), faxed a statement entitled 'Toward Regime Change in North Korea' to reporters and various ''opinion leaders'' in the capital.
PNAC, which boasts Vice President Dick Cheney, Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld, Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Cheney's powerful chief of staff, I Lewis Libby -- among a dozen other senior Bush national-security officials -- as signers of its 1997 charter, issues statements relatively infrequently.
''It's clear that they see the transition (between the Bush administration's two terms) and before any new round of the Six-Party Talks -- as the time to try to set policy direction'', one veteran analyst told IPS on Monday.
Kristol's statement referred in particular to two recent articles, including one published last week by Nicholas Eberstadt, a Korea specialist at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), which appeared in the neo-conservative 'The Weekly Standard', which is edited by Kristol.
The article, 'Tear Down This Tyranny', called for the implementation of a six-point strategy aimed at ousting North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Il, in part by ''working around the pro-appeasement crowd in the South Korean government'', which apparently includes Roh himself.
The second article, published Sunday in the 'New York Times', detailed a number of recent indications cited by right-wing officials and the press in Japan -- including high-level defections and the reported circulation of anti-government pamphlets -- that Kim's hold on power may be slipping.
The article noted in particular a recent statement by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Shinzo Abe, that ''regime change'' was a distinct possibility and that ''we need to start simulations of what we should do at that time''.
''Recent reports suggest the presence of emerging cracks in the Stalinist power structure of North Korea, and even the emergence of serious dissident activity there'', wrote Kristol. ''This should remind us that one of President Bush's top priorities in his second term will have to be dealing with this wretch(ed) regime'', he went on, citing Eberstadt's strategy as ''useful guidance for an improved North Korean policy''.
Eberstadt's article, which criticised Korea policy in Bush's first term for being both ''reactive'' and ''paralysed by infighting'', proceeds from the explicit assumption that efforts to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear programme -- which U.S. intelligence believes may already include as many as eight nuclear weapons -- are almost certainly futile.
''We are exceedingly unlikely to talk -- or to bribe -- the current North Korean government out of its nuclear quest'', according to Eberstadt in an implicit rejection of the basic goal of the Six-Party Talks.
Moreover, he wrote, the nuclear crisis and the North Korean government are essentially one and the same: ''Unless and until we have a better class of dictator running North Korea, we will be faced with an ongoing and indeed growing North Korean crisis''.
To achieve the desired ''regime change'', Eberstadt called first for a purge of State Department officials who argued for engaging Pyongyang during Bush's first term.
Washington, according to Eberstadt, should also increase ''China's 'ownership' of the North Korean problem'' by making clear to Beijing that it ''will bear high costs if the current denuclearisation diplomacy failed''.
At the same time, U.S. officials must recognise that South Korea has, under Kim and the ''implacably anti-American and reflexively pro-appeasement'' core of his government, become a ''runaway ally'' -- ''a country bordering a state committed to its destruction, and yet governed increasingly in accordance with graduate-school 'peace studies' desiderata.''
''Instead of appeasing South Korea's appeasers (as our policy to date has attempted to do, albeit clumsily)'', according to Eberstadt, ''America should be speaking over their heads directly to the Korean people, building and nurturing the coalitions in South Korean domestic politics that will ultimately bring a prodigal ally back into the fold'', he argued.
Washington should also ready ''the non-diplomatic instruments for North Korean threat reduction'', Eberstadt wrote, arguing that preparing for the deliberate use of such options -- presumably an economic embargo or even military strikes -- ''will actually increase the probability of a diplomatic success''.
Finally, echoing the LDP's Abe, Eberstadt called for planning for a ''post-Communist Korean peninsula'' with other interested parties, ''to maximise the opportunities and minimise the risks in that delicate and potentially dangerous process''.
Eberstadt's strategy, according to a number of analysts, largely echoes the views of Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton, a former AEI vice president who is openly campaigning to become deputy secretary of state under Condoleezza Rice.
Bolton, perhaps the administration's most extreme hard-liner, has strong support in Cheney's office and other right-wing strongholds, including 'The Weekly Standard' and on the editorial page of the 'Wall Street Journal'.
On Saturday, right-wing Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara, who claims to be on friendly terms with Bolton, told Fuji Television that Bolton wants to impose economic sanctions against North Korea, which, in the U.S. official's view, would lead to Kim's ouster ''within one year''. (END/2004)
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